Hindsight Bias

As you proceed through this course, you will continue to apply your understanding of judgments. Keep in mind that judgments are evaluations, and decisions are intentions to pursue action. Judgments may be influenced by memory, which may result in your making an inaccurate judgment. This is the case with hindsight bias. According to your textbook, hindsight bias is allowing the outcomes of the past to influence your judgment about future outcomes.

Knowledge of hindsight bias is valuable when trying to form accurate judgments. Hindsight bias has spurred research on several topics that may relate to your own experiences. A special hindsight bias issue of the journal Memory contains 11 research articles that address different aspects of hindsight bias.

To prepare for this Discussion:

• Review Chapter 6 in your text, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. Pay particular attention to the definitions and examples of hindsight bias.
• Think of a personal example of an inaccurate judgment you made due to hindsight bias.
• Select and read an article of interest in the special hindsight bias issue of the journal Memory located in the Walden University library in the Academic Search Premier database. Look for volume 11, issue 4/5.
• Reflect on how the information in the article relates to your personal example of hindsight bias.
• Analyze how you might reconsider your future judgments based on what you learned about hindsight bias.

With these thoughts in mind:

Post by Day 4 a personal example of an inaccurate judgment you made due to hindsight bias. Be specific. Explain the outcome. Then, explain how you might reconsider your future judgments based on what you learned about hindsight bias.