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MBA,MCS,M.phil
Devry University
Jan-2008 - Jan-2011
MBA,MCS,M.Phil
Devry University
Feb-2000 - Jan-2004
Regional Manager
Abercrombie & Fitch.
Mar-2005 - Nov-2010
Regional Manager
Abercrombie & Fitch.
Jan-2005 - Jan-2008
Your firm is thinking of expanding. If you invest today, the expansion will generate $10 million in FCF at the end of the year, and will have a continuation value of either $150 million (if the economy improves) or $50 million (if the economy does not improve). If you wait until next year to invest, you will lose the opportunity to make $10 million in FCF, but you will know the continuation value of the investment in the following year (that is, in a year from now, you will know what the investment continuation value will be in the following year). Suppose the risk- free rate is 5%, and the risk-neutral probability that the economy improves is 45%. Assume the cost of expanding is the same this year or next year.
If the cost of expanding is $80 million, should you do so today or wait until next year to
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decide?
At what cost of expanding would there be no difference between expanding now and wait- ing? To what profitability index does this correspond?
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