Protective Intelligence
Identifying the Potentially
Dangerous Subject 6 Not all information is intelligence, but all intelligence is information.
We must get into the opponent’s decision loop and move through it faster. When we do so, we
will win. When we win, we are secure.
—Col. John Boyd (1927–1997), twentieth century military strategist
Intelligence is derived from information or raw data but is not “intelligence” until it has been
“analyzed”. Analysis means assimilating information to its “lowest common denominator”
and rendering it useful for the intended purpose. It is a way to establish a basis for rational decision making and planning. [Protective] intelligence analysts, in looking to make sound judgments and predictions, are always under the obligation of “making sense” of complex issues.
Intelligence is basing a conclusion upon the facts; not making the facts fit the conclusion.1 Introduction
“He was always a very quiet, stay-to-himself private person, a good neighbor, but we never
socialized and, in fact, hardly ever saw him. He is the last person you would think would
do something like this.” If this sounds familiar, it is because this is a frequently reported
quote made in the aftermath of a workplace violence scenario, an assassination attempt,
or an outrageous act of man-made violence.
Less frequently reported but just as telling is, “It doesn’t surprise me. I always thought
he was a ticking time bomb, just waiting to explode. He was wound tighter than a cheap
alarm clock, always unfriendly, never smiling, always ‘grousing’ about something. He just
seemed, you know, ‘different’, sulking, always by himself, a loner. He was a student that was
basically invisible; he had few friends.”
Then we sometimes hear, “He was so pleasant, maybe a little depressed, but he said that
one day he would ‘make it big’. He was always working on some angle.”
These are after-the-fact observations. In many cases the attack or violent act might
have been prevented if the early warning signs had been recognized or if particular personality traits had been correctly interpreted. What follows is not meant and in no way intends
to become a psychological profile or to make readers diagnosticians. This chapter serves
as a general guideline for the novice or layman on how to recognize those issues inherent
in circumstances occasioned by a volatile and potentially dangerous person. He may be a
co-worker, neighbor, or even family member. A second purpose is to bring to the attention
of security professionals ways to spot a potentially dangerous person in a crowd. A third
objective is to recognize and evaluate the elements of a sociopathic (antisocial) personality
who may have an intention to hurt or embarrass a protectee. This discussion also centers
on methods used by the aggressive person to bring violent conduct to a workplace setting. 63 64 Introduction to Executive Protection Downloaded by [American Public University System] at 14:32 15 March 2016 One thing we do know is that prevention is often possible. Here’s why2:
• [Attackers] typically don’t just snap. Instead, they usually plan their attacks in
advance, for weeks, months, or even years. This planning behavior is often observed
by, and causes concern to, those around them. If we can uncover someone’s plans
for attack, we can often stop them before they do harm.
• Typically [they] tell other people about their violent plans beforehand, in advance
of their attack. Sometimes they share their plans in conversations, other times
in journal entries sent to others. In some cases they discuss their plans on social
media sites, where a lot of people can see them. When someone hears a friend talk
about hurting other people or hurting themselves—and passes that information
along to those who can help—we can often prevent an attack.
• [Attackers] are typically not psychopaths or sociopaths. Instead, they are usually
individuals who are desperate or despondent—whether because they have experienced multiple losses, or unbearable situations, or have some underlying mental
health conditions—and they reach a point where they feel that violence is the best
way—or perhaps the only way—to solve their problems. Identifying the Human Danger Factor
Every day, letters and telephone calls are received at the White House making either direct
or implied threats against the life of the president by those who would wish him harm. Each
letter and telephone call is thoroughly investigated by the Secret Service. An evaluation is
made of the potential risk factors and threat level. If necessary, appropriate protective measures are taken, but there are still those who would attack the president without warning.
A person in the private sector is also the target of written and oral threats, and each
threat should be considered and judgmentally weighed to determine the viability of the
threat. A protection specialist should develop skills in analyzing information developed
through media coverage and other available resources and look for indicators of motivations that will provide him with an edge when making his risk assessment and planning
his security coverage.
There are early warning signs or red flags (indicators) that, if recognized and reacted to
as possible sources of violence, may herald the coming hurricane. Co-workers and immediate supervisors (or fellow students and teachers3) have the best opportunities to recognize initial unacceptable behavior or questionable problem areas. Training of co-workers,
supervisors, and managers in appropriate ways of dealing with a variety of situations and
to recognize and report a shift in attitude, substance abuse, etc. before they escalate is a
critical element.
An early symptom of aberrant employee (or student) behavior is a developing poor
attendance and dependability history. For example, a person has an excellent record of
dependable and appropriate service over a specified period of time but, “lately he has been
late with assignments, fails to meet deadlines, arrives late to work, leaves early, or not
showing up at all because of sickness or some other excuse.” Taking sick days off, m
issing
deadlines, and not completing assignments may be unusual because the person might
never have taken any time off for sickness, never missed a work assignment or deadline,
even when walking around with pneumonia. Downloaded by [American Public University System] at 14:32 15 March 2016 Protective Intelligence 65 Other out-of-character behavior may be exhibited in expressing direct or implied
threats and/or intimidations preceding the actual incident of violence. There are prevalent
behaviors or commonalities of potentially dangerous people that the protection agent must
become familiar with. Historically, perpetrators have demonstrated obvious unacceptable
behavior, unusual or bizarre demeanor, and emotional instability that went unrecognized
even by those closest to him. Perhaps his personality slowly changes from a gregarious individual to a sulking vindictive person. He begins reading gun magazines, taking shooting
lessons at a local firing range, talks about getting even someday, or mentions they are out
to get him. He becomes secretive, laughs at or takes offense at meaningless comments, etc.
It is theorized that at the root of most emotional motivations toward anger and violence is distress or depression. A good rule of thumb to remember is depression manifests
anger; paranoia manifests fear; fear and anger equal violence. Depression leaves a person
weepy and gloomy; anger makes the person feel empowered. To escape the feelings brought
about by depression, anger—the lion of emotions—becomes the answer. The anger grows
in proportion to the person’s need to be in control. Being in control, or believing he is in
control, provides him the power he is seeking over his assumed target. This has been evidenced by workplace violence and school shootings where the perpetrator attacks those he
believes are responsible for his unsatisfactory social affirmations, his misguided decision
making, or mental instability.
A quiet, downhearted person may suddenly erupt into rage and destructive violence,
usually with no warning or readily apparent motive. For weeks, perhaps months or years,
he has maintained his own counsel, keeping to himself, often disengaging himself from
office activities other than his assigned duties. He may have no effective support system
such as a family or social contact outside of his workplace. If he has a family, he may retreat
from them or direct his frustration and anger toward them. “There is a strong relationship
between job stress and incidents of harassment and violence in the workplace and home.
Over 25% of violence incidents in the workplace are carried over from domestic violence.
The violence cycle continues as workplace problems are carried over to the home.”4
Stress, anxiety, and boredom are constant companions, infecting him with resentment
and suppressed anger over real or imagined slights such as being passed over for promotion or being assigned meaningless jobs. His isolation and resentment festers over time
until the bubble bursts, and his actions, so out of character, result in human misery, pain,
perhaps death. The typical potentially dangerous person’s behavior can be diagrammed as
in Figure 6.1.
Working up to the vortex of his stress, anger, and resentment may take several months
or years, lending itself to being easily overlooked by the ones, like family, co-workers, or
supervisors, who should take note of the changing pattern. In retrospect, after the violent
act, various levels of progression leading to the event can be identified by friends, family,
co-workers, and supervisors.
Drastic Changes in Habits
He exhibits symptoms of burnout such as drastic changes in his work performance, appearance, attitude, and demeanor; changing from being a hard charger or heavy hitter to
a “round to it” (I’ll do it when I get around to it). Where he was once punctual, meeting
deadlines, and always at work either on time or early, often staying late, maybe working on
weekends­, he begins a trend toward absenteeism, lowering his production and dependability. Downloaded by [American Public University System] at 14:32 15 March 2016 66 Introduction to Executive Protection Figure 6.1  The buildup from a normal baseline to the explosive or action stage may take a long time to develop, going though several build up states including lower production and a negative
change in attitude and an increase in excuses and absenteeism. The return to baseline comes
quickly, including remorse and relief. His attitude toward his work and co-workers changes to anger and resentment, often
complaining and nitpicking or moaning about trivial matters, expressing impatience with
co-workers, and displaying paranoiac allusions about supervisors. His paranoid behavior
drives him to acting secretively and defensively, often to the point of overt hostile actions
or becoming argumentative and physically aggressive, perhaps focusing aggression or special interest on another employee, manager, or supervisor. He begins to hear voices, see
images, or imagine someone or something is out to get him.
Talk about Guns, Weapons, Violence, or Getting Even
He never had much, if any, interest in guns, other weapons, or combatives (martial arts),
but within the last year or so has begun talking about guns or other weapons, reading gun
magazines at work, and talking about hunting or other gun- or defense-related topics. He
exhibits inappropriate anger or explosiveness, directing attention to focus on one person
or organization, sometimes speaking of suicide or hurting someone. He may compile a jail
record for violence, assault, or other aggressive behavior and begins (or continues) to abuse
drugs or alcohol.
Emotional Trauma
He may have experienced trauma in his life such as a divorce, job termination, financial
hardship, death of a loved one, or bullying. The person could display episodes of depression, alienation, or isolation. Without a supportive and understanding person(s) in his life,
he becomes a loner, changing personal habits, hygiene, and attitude toward life (perhaps
drifting into depression, which could lead to anger and hostility). His mood swings often
are apparent, ranging from empowerment to feeling unappreciated.
Over time, if not treated, he may build up resentment, hostility, and paranoia, eventually erupting into an act of violence. After the act, he may not show remorse, shame, or Protective Intelligence 67 guilt, but usually those emotions, especially remorse if he feels it, will rapidly drive him
to his baseline, replacing the devastating passion that drove him. He may not initially feel
guilt or remorse but may rationalize his actions as something others drove him to. Downloaded by [American Public University System] at 14:32 15 March 2016 Protective Intelligence Investigation
It’s not enough to identify the person making the threat or the extent of the possibility of
being able to carry it out. Something must be done to neutralize the threat. Intelligence is
raw data (information) after it has been deciphered, examined, analyzed, and exposed to
the light of critical assessment and transformed into a usable form for either strategic or
tactical planning.
Every bit of communication is routinely inspected for implied, potential, and real
threats. Each word is scrutinized for double meanings that can spell anger, suicidal thoughts,
warnings, and intentions. If analysis dictates to reasoning and logical thinking that the
correspondent might present a clear and plain danger, an investigation is warranted.
The first step, naturally, is to identify the letter writer or caller. The usual procedure
calls for comparing the words, phrases, style, tenor, and tone with other correspondence
received previously. Often a match can be made that will lead the investigator to make an
identification. Forensic or scientific examination of the ink, paper, envelope, postmark,
etc. can often lead to determining the source. Once an identification is made, further background checking must be conducted to determine the level of threat posed by the correspondent. For example, one writer may make extremely viable sounding threats, such as,
“I am going to kill (the protectee). He is a (profane words). I am coming and will (shoot,
stab, etc.) him.”
Background investigation reveals the subject has a military background, qualified
in several types of weapons, proficient with explosives, and other relevant aggressive
expertise­. Perhaps he has a criminal record and has been under psychiatric care. To ­further
instigate the person to violence, he has recently been abandoned by his wife, lost his job,
and is in deep financial debt. This person sounds like a very likely candidate to be capable
of fulfilling his threats. He would be classified as a 1-A threat level.
On the other hand, a personal visit to the person may reveal him to be a ­bedridden
paraplegic, destined to live within the confines of his bedroom, always attached to his
oxygen bottle. His threat level suddenly drops to a 4-F level. More often than not, a s­ erious
attacker won’t be known or heard from until the instant he triggers his plan. But just
because a person makes his threat known does not mean he is incapable of c­ arrying out
his scheme. In other words, nothing must ever be taken for granted when it comes to
determining threat levels of those who would wish harm to a protectee. In more than
50 years of Secret Service protective intelligence, not once has a presidential attacker
made his ­intentions known in advance. But to say it hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it
won’t. So every threat must be taken seriously.
Written Threat Analysis
The tenor and tone of the writing is very often a clue to the person’s mental condition.
Professor and former U.S. Senator S. I. Hayakawa discusses the role of language in human Downloaded by [American Public University System] at 14:32 15 March 2016 68 Introduction to Executive Protection life, “the many functions of language, and how in Thought language—sometimes without
our knowing—shapes our thinking” in his classic book, Language in Thought and Action.5
Like the spoken word, written communication must be evaluated not only for what is
said but also how it is said! According to Senator Hayakawa, you can learn much of what a
person is thinking simply by the words he uses. The writer translates his thinking, action,
and emotion into an experience of feeling. Feeling comes from expression and sincerity. An
angry report will be slashed with exclamation points, short stabbing sentences, and slashing
angry words. A humorous or friendly writing will use words in a light, playful manner.
In the above paragraph, note the use of the words slashing and stabbing describing an
angry report. (Can you not see Marvin Bates in the Alfred Hitchcock thriller Psycho as he
plunges the butcher knife again and again through the steamy shower curtain? The viewer
never sees the knife actually striking the surprised victim but he feels her shock and helplessness as we see the blood begin to trickle with the water spiraling down the drain.) That
is the definitive use of slashed and stabbing. The writer is no longer watching. He is part of
the action. He feels it! He experiences it! He is it!
This type of writing is identified with psychopathic personalities exemplified in serial
killers, perpetrators of workplace violence, and stalking cases leading to homicide.
Word repetition is a commonality of many threatening letter writers. It indicates a
limited­vocabulary and hints of amateurism or carelessness. Frequently a writer has a
favorite catchphrase or word that he will use over and over and will not edit out anything
he has written. It’s not always what is said but the words a person chooses to use. It will
often denote the writer’s level of education, sophistication, experience, interests, perhaps
personality, and even his thought process.
Voice, Tenor, and Tone
Important considerations must be given to the tenor and tone of the article. Tenor refers to
the inflection of the sound of the writing. Tone hints to the mood or emotions of the writer.
It gives a manner of voice. Is the writer angry? Is he being reflective? Is he excited and
trying to excite the reader? Is he being expressive, moving the language into a crescendo
of demonstrative emotion gradually increasing in loudness and intensity, working into a
climax? Is he telling the story in a professor’s monotone, a show business monologue, or
simply announcing the events as they unfold, perhaps in a businesslike manner? Or is the
writing incoherent and rambling?
What is being told may be based on actual experience—maybe not the writer’s experience necessarily, but someone’s. If the objective is to rise to the level of galvanizing action
or to stir the emotions, the writer will use short, powerful words or phrases—coming in
rapid succession! Or piled onto the next! Not stopping for a breath! Punctuating them
with exclamation points! It’s a boxer using a series of quick sledgehammer jabs to the solar
plexus emphasizing his intent to knock out the opponent. Very much like this paragraph!
Take that! And that! And this! Even the words in the last phrase connote violence.
A monotone is page after page of seemingly nondescriptive or passive-voice sentences
woven together in a manner that informs but not necessarily excites. The sentences are
marked with an ordinary period rather than the exciting exclamation point. This type of
writing is usually found in writings by depressed persons and the mentally ill. Protective Intelligence 69 Motivation
There are several motives for writing a letter to the object of the threatener’s attention.
Motivation is relative to topic selection. An essay or letter is usually written to advance
one’s opinion, feelings, or establish a position in a social matter. To many people, writing is
a form of therapy. The writing may be a threat, an implied threat, or a method of venting.
Writing requires a certain amount of passion. It is left to the reader to identify that passion. Downloaded by [American Public University System] at 14:32 15 March 2016 Topic
The writer simply engages his imagination, selecting something in which he has a special
interest, or to express himself—which is the most common. Topic selection is closely tied
to the feelings, thoughts, interests, and knowledge of the author. To frighten the reader,
the writer must include bits of information showing his knowledge regarding the reader.
The writer seeks out data and facts from documents, surveys, and interviews. He may be
an insider.
A letter may have a religious theme, indicating that the person to whom the letter is
directed is sinful, lusting, a harlot, etc. This type of writer is usually very prolific. To him
the words are messages from God revealed to him as commands and wishes of God but
are usually incoherent, nonsensible, disjointed, and rambling. “The wages of sin is hell!”
“Burn in the fires of hell.” “As ye sow, so shall ye reap.” The religious writer may also include
Bible verses of violence6:
2 Chronicles 15:13—That whosoever would not seek the Lord God of Israel should be put to
death, whether small or great, whether man or woman.
Romans13:4—For he is the minister of God to thee for good. But if thou do that which is evil,
be afraid; for he beareth not the sword in vain: for he is the minister of God, a revenger to
[execute] wrath upon him that doeth evil.
Psalms55:15—Let death seize upon them, [and] let them go down quick into hell: for
w ickedness [is] in their dwellings, [and] among them. Jargon
Jargon is a clue to the background of the writer. For example the expression yardbirds refers
to a person working in a train yard. In today’s vernacular a yardbird may also refer to a
prisoner spending time in the yard. A screw is a prison guard, etc. Every job or occupation
has its own special language. This is known as jargon. Many writers have a fixation and
will focus on a specific topic. For example, a religious fanatic will ramble about the wages
of sin, the wickedness of sex, and everlasting damnation. As exemplified by the glossary in
Appendix F, personal protection has its own language.
Flowery words are used by egocentric persons who think they are being profound.
Flowery words connote a sense of insincerity. They are used by the flatterer, the con artist,
anyone who is trying to convey his message through overwhelming the reader with a false
sense of intellect. The writer most clearly will use words and vocabulary that best fits his
style, personality, level of maturity, and education. 70 Introduction to Executive Protection Downloaded by [American Public University System] at 14:32 15 March 2016 The Ending
The first order of business is to read the entire piece, making sure to grasp its content.
Upon completion of reading the material, the next step is to utilize critical thinking skills
or analysis. Perhaps new thoughts have arisen and new ideas might be presented. Words
should be checked for subtle meanings to ascertain the subconscious or hidden meanings.
The second and third readings should be to look for critical mistakes or mechanical
errors. This could include those little words like and, but, like, however, whereas, inasmuch,
for example, and also spelling mistakes, misuse of words, punctuation, capitalization, and
grammar. All of these words and mistakes help form a pattern that could lead to the identification of the writer.
It is not unusual for the threat—be it overt, implied, or conditional—to be revealed
only at the end of the written message. Sometimes this may necessitate reading pages and
pages of unconnected thoughts and reasoning. Even the closing signature line may contain the threat, such as “Yours in death,” or “We’ll soon meet in hell,” or “Best wishes for a
beautiful funeral.”
The Unidentified Maker of a Threat
Identifying an unknown threat maker is very difficult, especially if he is not of record
or known by any agency with a file of known and unknown writers of threat letters.
The next step, after checking files and indexes, is similar to solving any other type of
crime—interviewing the intended target and determining any potential suspects, and then
in widening circles, interviewing associates including employees, friends, and family.
The Intelligence Analysis
The process of taking raw data and obtaining intelligence that can be acted upon from it
involves careful analysis and is an integral part of protective intelligence work. Intelligence
means digesting information or data to its lowest common denominator and rendering
it useful for its intended purpose. It is viewing a particular set of circumstances from a
number of sources and perspectives to form an inference and premise based on analysis,
reasoning, logic, training, and experi...

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