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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
A financial advisor has recommended two possible mutual funds for investment: Fund A and Fund B. The return that will be achieved by each of these depends on whether the economy is good, fair, or poor. A payoff table has been constructed to illustrate this situation:
Â
|
STATE OF NATURE |
|||
|
INVESTMENT |
GOOD ECONOMY |
FAIR ECONOMY |
POOR ECONOMY |
|
Fund A |
$10,000 |
$2,000 |
-$5,000 |
|
Fund B |
$6,000 |
$4,000 |
0 |
|
Probability |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
Â
(a) Draw the decision tree to represent this situation.
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(b) Perform the necessary calculations to determine which of the two mutual funds is better. Which one should you choose to maximize the expected value?
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(c) Suppose there is question about the return of Fund A in a good economy. It could be higher or lower than $10,000. What value for this would cause a person to be indifferent between Fund A and Fund B (i.e., the EMVs would be the same)?
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