Maurice Tutor

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    Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
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    Phoniex University
    Oct-2001 - Nov-2016

Category > Accounting Posted 27 Sep 2017 My Price 8.00

poor economy

Two states of nature exist for a particular situation: a good economy and a poor economy. An economic study may be performed to obtain more information about which of these will actually occur in the coming year. The study may forecast either a good economy or a poor economy. Currently there is a 60% chance that the economy will be good and a 40% chance that it will be poor. In the past, whenever the economy was good, the economic study predicted it would be good 80% of the time. (The other 20% of the time the prediction was wrong.) In the past, whenever the economy was poor, the economic study predicted it would be poor 90% of the time. (The other 10% of the time the prediction was wrong.)

 

(a) Use Bayes’ theorem and find the following:

 

 

(b) Suppose the initial (prior) probability of a good economy is 70% (instead of 60%), and the probability of a poor economy is 30% (instead of 40%). Find the posterior probabilities in part a based on these new values.

Answers

Maurice Tutor
(5)
Status NEW Posted 27 Sep 2017 06:09 PM My Price 8.00

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