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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
Mary is considering opening a new grocery store in town. She is evaluating three sites: downtown, the mall, and out at the busy traffic circle. Mary calculated the value of successful stores at these locations as follows: downtown, $250,000; the mall, $300,000; the circle, $400,000. Mary calculated the losses if unsuccessful to be $100,000 at either downtown or the mall and $200,000 at the circle. Mary figures her chance of success to be 50% downtown, 60% at the mall, and 75% at the traffic circle.
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(a) Draw a decision tree for Mary and select her best alternative.
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(b) Mary has been approached by a marketing research firm that offers to study the area to determine if another grocery store is needed. The cost of this study is $30,000. Mary believes there is a 60% chance that the survey results will be positive (show a need for another grocery store).
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And so on.
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For studies of this nature:

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Calculate the revised probabilities for success (and not success) for each location, depending on survey results.
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(c) How much is the marketing research worth to Mary? Calculate the revised probabilities for success (and not success) for each location, depending on survey results.
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(c) How much is the marketing research worth to Mary? Calculate the EVSI.
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