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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
Rudy is an astronaut and the engineer for Project Pluto. Rudy has determined that the mission’s success or failure depends on only three major systems. Further, Rudy decides that the mission is a failure if and only if two or more of the major systems fail. The following is known about these systems. System I, the auxiliary generator, fails with probability 0.1 and does not depend on the other systems. System II, the fuel system, fails with probability 0.5 if at least one other system fails. If no other system fails, the probability that the fuel system fails is 0.1. System III, the beer cooler, fails with probability 0.5 if the generator system fails. Otherwise the beer cooler cannot fail.
(a) Draw the event space (sample space) for this problem by constructing a tree of possible events involving failure or nonfailure of the major systems. Use the notation Gc , Bc , Fc to represent failure of the generator, beer cooler, and fuel systems and G, B, F to represent nonfailure of those systems. The ends of your tree should be labeled with triples such as GcBF and their probabilities.
(b) Answer the following questions about the mission.
(i) What is the probability that the mission fails?
(ii) What is the probability that all three systems fail?
 (c) Given that more than one system failed, what is the probability:
(i) that the generator did not fail?
(ii) that the beer cooler failed?
(iii) that both the generator and the fuel system failed?
(d) Given that the beer cooler failed, what is the probability that the mission succeeded?
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