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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
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Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
Consider the valuation of Kenneth Cole Productions in Example 9.7.
a. Suppose you believe KCP’s initial revenue growth rate will be between 4% and 11% (with growth slowing in equal steps to 4% by year 2011). What range of share prices for KCP is consistent with these forecasts?
b. Suppose you believe KCP’s EBIT margin will be between 7% and 10% of sales. What range of share prices for KCP is consistent with these forecasts (keeping KCP’s initial revenue growth at 9%)?
c. Suppose you believe KCP’s weighted average cost of capital is between 10% and 12%. What range of share prices for KCP is consistent with these forecasts (keeping KCP’s initial rev- enue growth and EBIT margin at 9%)?
d. What range of share prices is consistent if you vary the estimates as in parts (a), (b), and (c) simultaneously?
E xample 9.7
Valuing Kenneth Cole Using Free Cash Flow
Kenneth Cole (KCP) had sales of $518 million in 2005. Suppose you expect its sales to grow at a 9% rate in 2006, but that this growth rate will slow by 1% per year to a long-run growth rate for the apparel industry of 4% by 2011. Based on KCP’s past profitability and investment needs, you expect EBIT to be 9% of sales, increases in net working capital requirements to be 10% of any increase in sales, and net investment (capital expenditures in excess of depreciation) to be 8% of any increase in sales. If KCP has $100 million in cash, $3 million in debt, 21 million shares outstanding, a tax rate of 37%, and a weighted average cost of capital of 11%, what is your estimate of the value of KCP’s stock in early 2006?
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