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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Des Moines ballpark, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking derision) and states of nature (size of crowd):
| Â |
States of Nature (size of crowd) |
||
|
Alternatives |
Large |
Average |
Small |
|
Large inventory |
$20,000 |
$10,000 |
-$2,000 |
|
Average inventory |
$15,000 |
$12,000 |
$6,000 |
|
Small inventory |
$ 9,000 |
$ 6,000 |
$5,000 |
If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.3 for a large crowd, 0.5 for an average crowd, and 0.2 for a small crowd, determine:
a) The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV).
b)The expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
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