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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
Mortgage interest rates. Refer to Exercise 10.8 (p. 541). The data on the annual average mortgage interest rates for conventional, fixed-rate, 30-year loans for the period 1985–2007 are reproduced below. Forecast the 2010 average mortgage interest rate using each of the methods listed here. Compare the results to the forecast obtained in Exercise 10.8b.

(a) A 3-point moving average
(b) The exponential smoothing technique (w = .2)
(c) The Holt–Winters model with trend (w = .2 and v = .5)
(d) A straight-line, first-order autoregressive model (Obtain an approximate 95% prediction interval.)
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