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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
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Consumer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the increase (or decrease) in the prices of goods and services relative to a base year. The CPI for the years 1990–2008 (using 1984 as a base period) is shown in the table on p. 536.
(a) Graph the time series. Do you detect a longterm trend?
(b) Calculate and plot a 5-point moving average for the CPI. Use the moving average to forecast the CPI in 2011.
(c) Calculate and plot the exponentially smoothed series for the CPI using a smoothing constant of w = .4. Use the exponentially smoothed values to forecast the CPI in 2011.
(d) Use the Holt–Winters forecasting model with trend to forecast the CPI in 2011. Use smoothing constants w = .4 and v = .5.

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