Maurice Tutor

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    Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
    Nov-2005 - Oct-2011

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    Phoniex University
    Oct-2001 - Nov-2016

Category > Management Posted 29 Jan 2018 My Price 8.00

testing of FBI agents

The article on polygraph testing of FBI agents referenced in Exercise 7.51 indicated that the probability of a false-positive (a trustworthy person who nonetheless fails the test) is .15. Let x be the number of trustworthy FBI agents tested until someone fails the test.

a. Describe the probability distribution of x?

b. What is the probability that the first falsepositive will occur when the third person is tested?

c. What is the probability that fewer than four are tested before the first false-positive occurs?

d. What is the probability that more than three agents are tested before the first false-positive occurs?

Exercise 51

The article “FBI Says Fewer than 25 Failed Polygraph Test” (San Luis Obispo Tribune, July 29, 2001) states that false-positives in polygraph tests (tests in which an individual fails even though he or she is telling the truth) are relatively common and occur about 15% of the time. Suppose that such a test is given to 10 trustworthy individuals.

a. What is the probability that all 10 pass?

b. What is the probability that more than two fail, even though all are trustworthy?

c. The article indicated that 500 FBI agents were required to take a polygraph test. Consider the random variable x = number of the 500 tested who fail. If all 500 agents tested are trustworthy, what are the mean and standard deviation of x?

d. The headline indicates that fewer than 25 of the 500 agents tested failed the test. Is this a surprising result if all 500 are trustworthy? Answer based on the values of the mean and standard deviation from Part (c).

 

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Maurice Tutor
(5)
Status NEW Posted 29 Jan 2018 10:01 PM My Price 8.00

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