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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
Uncertainty and policy. (Brainerd, 1967.) Suppose output is given by y = x + (k + εk)z + u, where z is some policy instrument controlled by the government and k is the expected value of the multiplier for that instrument. εk and u are independent, mean-zero disturbances that are unknown when the policymaker chooses z, and that have variances σ2k and σ2u . Finally, x is a disturbance that is known when z is chosen. The policymaker wants to minimize E[(y − y∗) 2].
(a) Find E[(y − y∗) 2] as a function of
(b) Find the first-order condition for z, and solve for z.
(c) How, if at all, does σ2u affect how policy should respond to shocks (that is, to the realized value of x )? Thus, how does uncertainty about the state of the economy affect the case for “fine-tuning”?
How, if at all, does σ 2 k affect how policy should respond to shocks (that is, to the realized value of x )? Thus, how does uncertainty about the effects of policy affect the case for “fine-tuning”?
(d) How, if at all, does σ2k affect how policy should respond to shocks (that is, to the realized value of x )? Thus, how does uncertainty about the effects of policy affect the case for “fine-tuning”?
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