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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
42.     A local bank reviewed its credit card policy with the intention of recalling some of its credit cards. In the past approximately 5% of cardholders defaulted, leaving the bank unable to collect the outstanding balance. Hence, management established a prior probability of .05 that any particular cardholder will default. The bank also found that the probability of miss- ing a monthly payment is .20 for customers who do not default. Of course, the probability of missing a monthly payment for those who default is 1.
a.      Given that a customer missed one or more monthly payments, compute the posterior probability that the customer will default.
b.      The bank would like to recall its card if the probability that a customer will default is greater than .20. Should the bank recall its card if the customer misses a monthly pay- ment? Why or why not?
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