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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
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Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
17.    Â
Finance: European Growth Fund A european growth mutual fund specializes in stocks from the British Isles, continental Europe, and Scandinavia. The fund has over 100 stocks. Let x be a random variable that represents the monthly per- centage return for this fund. Based on information from Morningstar (see Problem 19), x has mean m = 1.4% and standard deviation s = 0.8%.
(a)Â Â Â Â
Let’s consider the monthly return of the stocks in the European growth fund to be a sample from the population of monthly returns of all European stocks. Is it reasonable to assume that x (the average monthly return on the 100 stocks in the European growth fund) has a distribution that is approxi- mately normal? Explain. Hint: See Problem 19, part (a).
(b)Â Â Â
After 9 months, what is the probability that the average monthly percentage return x will be between 1% and 2%? Hint: See Theorem 6.1 and the results of part (a).
(c)Â Â Â Â ![]()
After 18 months, what is the probability that the average monthly percent- age return x will be between 1% and 2%?
(d)Â Â Â Compare your answers to parts (b) and (c). Did the probability increase as n
(number of months) increased? Why would this  happen?
(e)Â Â Â Â
Interpretation: If after 18 months the average monthly percentage return x is more than 2%, would that tend to shake your confidence in the statement that m = 1.4%? If this happened, do you think the European stock market might be heating up? Explain.
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