About Maurice Tutor

Levels Tought:
Elementary,Middle School,High School,College,University,PHD

Expertise:

Algebra,Applied Sciences See all

Algebra,Applied Sciences,Biology,Calculus,Chemistry,Economics,English,Essay writing,Geography,Geology,Health & Medical,Physics,Science Hide all

Teaching Since:	May 2017
Last Sign in:	398 Weeks Ago, 5 Days Ago
Questions Answered:	66690
Tutorials Posted:	66688

Education

MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011

Experience

Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016

Category > Management Posted 04 May 2018 My Price 5.00

Quiet Mental Breakdown

Weekly income for Quiet Mental Breakdown, an online psychology firm, is provided below. Determine, on the basis of minimizing the mean square error, whether a three-period or four-period simple moving average gives a better forecast.

Forecasting Problem Set

F-1 Weekly income for Quiet Mental Breakdown, an online psychology firm, is provided below. Determine, on the basis of minimizing the mean square error, whether a three-period or four-period simple moving average gives a better forecast.

Week	Income
1	980
2	1040
3	1120
4	1050
5	960
6	990
7	1030
8	1260
9	1240
10	1100

F-2 Using the table above, what is your forecast for week 11 using a three-period weighted average with weights of .6, .3 and .1? The weights are stated from the most current time period to the oldest time period.

F-3 Using the table above, with smoothing constants of α = .10 and then α = .30, forecast income for week 11 using exponential smoothing.

Solutions

F-1 On the basis of minimizing the mean square error, the three-period simple moving average gives a better forecast (smaller MSE).

*Week*	*Actual Value*	*Moving Average*	*Error*	*Squared Error*
1	980
2	1040
3	1120
4	1050	1046.67	3.33	11.11
5	960	1070.00	-110.00	12100.00
6	990	1043.33	-53.33	2844.44
7	1030	1000.00	30.00	900.00
8	1260	993.33	266.67	71111.11
9	1240	1093.33	146.67	21511.11
10	1100	1176.67	-76.67	5877.78
11		1200.00		MSE=114,355.6/7=16336.51

*Week*	*Actual Value*	*Moving Average*	*Error*	*Squared Error*
1	980
2	1040
3	1120
4	1050
5	960	1047.50	-87.50	7656.25
6	990	1042.50	-52.50	2756.25
7	1030	1030.00	0.00	0.00
8	1260	1007.50	252.50	63756.25
9	1240	1060.00	180.00	32400.00
10	1100	1130.00	-30.00	900.00
11		1157.50		MSE=107,468.8/6=17911.46

F-2

*Week*	*Income*
1	980
2	1040
3	1120
4	1050	1082.0
5	960	1070.0
6	990	1003.0
7	1030	987.0
8	1260	1011.0
9	1240	1164.0
10	1100	1225.0
11		1158.0
12

Example week 4: 980(.1)+1040(.3)+1120(.6)=1082

Example week 11: 1260(.1)+1240(.3)+1100(.6)=1158

F-3 Using the table, with smoothing constants of α = .10 and then α = .30, forecast income for week 11 using exponential smoothing.

*Week*	*Income*	*α = .10*
1	980
2	1040	980.00
3	1120	986.00	1040(.1)+ 980(.9)= 986
4	1050	999.40	1120(.1)+ 986(.9)= 999.40
5	960	1004.46	1050(.1)+ 999.40(.9)=1004.46
6	990	1000.01	960(.1)+1004.46(.9)=1000.01
7	1030	999.01	990(.1)+1000.01(.9)= 999.01
8	1260	1002.11	1030(.1)+ 999.01(.9)=1002.11
9	1240	1027.90	1260(.1)+1002.11(.9)=1027.90
10	1100	1049.11	1240(.1)+1027.90(.9)=1049.10
11		1054.20	1100(.1)+1049.10(.9)=1054.20

*Week*	*Income*	*α = .30*
1	980
2	1040	980.00
3	1120	998.00
4	1050	1034.60
5	960	1039.22
6	990	1015.45
7	1030	1007.82
8	1260	1014.47
9	1240	1088.13
10	1100	1133.69
11		1123.58

Answers

Maurice Tutor

(5)

Status NEW Posted 04 May 2018 08:05 PM My Price 5.00

Hel-----------lo -----------Sir-----------/Ma-----------dam-----------Tha-----------nk -----------You----------- fo-----------r u-----------sin-----------g o-----------ur -----------web-----------sit-----------e a-----------nd -----------acq-----------uis-----------iti-----------on -----------of -----------my -----------pos-----------ted----------- so-----------lut-----------ion-----------.Pl-----------eas-----------e p-----------ing----------- me----------- on-----------cha-----------t I----------- am----------- on-----------lin-----------e o-----------r i-----------nbo-----------x m-----------e a----------- me-----------ssa-----------ge -----------I w-----------ill----------- be-----------

Not Rated(0)

Buy Answer

Hire Dedicated Virtual Team / Business Solution for SMEs.