QuickHelper

(10)

$20/per page/

About QuickHelper

Levels Tought:
Elementary,High School,College,University,PHD

Expertise:
Accounting,Applied Sciences See all
Accounting,Applied Sciences,Business & Finance,Chemistry,Engineering,Health & Medical Hide all
Teaching Since: May 2017
Last Sign in: 356 Weeks Ago, 3 Days Ago
Questions Answered: 20103
Tutorials Posted: 20155

Education

  • MBA, PHD
    Phoniex
    Jul-2007 - Jun-2012

Experience

  • Corportae Manager
    ChevronTexaco Corporation
    Feb-2009 - Nov-2016

Category > Accounting Posted 01 Jun 2017 My Price 14.00

Probability Analysis,

 

Question description

 

 

Assignment 2: Probability Analysis

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

Options:

Facility Demand Options Probability Actions Expected Payoffs
Large Low Demand 0.4 Do Nothing ($10)
Low Demand 0.4 Reduce Prices $50
High Demand 0.6 $70
Small Low Demand 0.4 $40
High Demand 0.6 Do Nothing $40
High Demand 0.6 Overtime $50
High Demand 0.6 Expand $55

Decision Tree

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Build Small:
Low Demand 0.4($40)=$16
High Demand 0.6($55)=$33
Build Large:
Low Demand 0.4($50)=$20
High Demand 0.6($70)=$42

Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: $16+$33=$49
Build Large: $20+$42=$62

Click here for the Statistical Terms review sheet.

Submit your conclusion in a Word document to the            

Assignment 2 Grading Criteria

Maximum Points
The diagram is accurate and labeled correctly. The diagram clearly illustrates the sequence of events and their probability of occurrences.

32
A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for the chance of probability and respective payoff is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.

28
A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for expected value is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.

20
Clear and concise statement explaining the decision and a description of elements that lead to the decision.

20
Total:

100

 

Attachments:

Answers

QuickHelper
(10)
Status NEW Posted 01 Jun 2017 08:06 PM My Price 14.00

Hel-----------lo -----------Sir-----------/Ma-----------dam----------- T-----------han-----------k Y-----------ou -----------for----------- us-----------ing----------- ou-----------r w-----------ebs-----------ite----------- an-----------d a-----------cqu-----------isi-----------tio-----------n o-----------f m-----------y p-----------ost-----------ed -----------sol-----------uti-----------on.----------- Pl-----------eas-----------e p-----------ing----------- me----------- on----------- ch-----------at -----------I a-----------m o-----------nli-----------ne -----------or -----------inb-----------ox -----------me -----------a m-----------ess-----------age----------- I -----------wil-----------l

Not Rated(0)