For games in baseball"s National League during nine decades
For games in baseball"s National League during nine decades, Table 4.6 shows the percentage of times that the starting pitcher pitched a complete game.
TABLE 4.6 Data for Problem 4.2
|
Â
|
Percent
|
Â
|
Percent
|
Â
|
Percent
|
|
Decade
|
Complete
|
Decade
|
Complete
|
Decade
|
Complete
|
|
1900-1909
|
72.7
|
1930-1939
|
44.3
|
1960-1969
|
27.2
|
|
1910-1919
|
63.4
|
1940-1949
|
41.6
|
1970-1979
|
22.5
|
|
1920-1929
|
50.0
|
1950-1959
|
32.8
|
1980-1989
|
13.3
|
a. Treating the number of games as the same in each decade, the ML fit of the linear probability model is 
 = 0.7578 — 0.0694x, where
x = decade (x = 1, 2, ... , 9). Interpret 0.7578 and — 0.0694.
b. Substituting x = 10, 11, 12, predict the percentages of complete games for the next three decades. Are these predictions plausible? Why?
c. The ML fit with logistic regression is  = exp(1.148 — 0.315x)/[1 + exp(1.148 — 0.315x)]. Obtain
for x = 10, 11, 12. Are theseÂ
more plausible?
Answers
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Posted 15 Jun 2017 03:06 PM
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