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MCS,PHD
Argosy University/ Phoniex University/
Nov-2005 - Oct-2011
Professor
Phoniex University
Oct-2001 - Nov-2016
polya’s urn scheme. An urn contains 4 white balls and 6 black balls. A ball is chosen at random, and its color noted. The ball is then replaced, along with 3 more balls of the same color (so that there are now 13 balls in the urn). Then another ball is drawn at random from the urn.
a)Â Â Â Â Â Â Find the chance that the second ball drawn is white. (Draw an appropriate tree diagram.)
b)Â Â Â Â Â Given that the second ball drawn is white. What is the probability that the first ball drawn is black?
c)Â Â Â Â Â Â Suppose the original contents of the urn are w white and b black balls, and that after a ball is drawn from the urn, it is replaced along with d more balls of the same color. In part a), w was 4, b was 6, and d was 3.. show that the chance that the second ball drawn is white isÂ
 [Note that the probability above does not depend on the value of d.]
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